There is small doubt that rushing and passing stats will be the predominant instrument of preference for handicappers looking to judge group power and the reliability of the idea distribute for almost any provided game. My evaluation is not any various in a few respects–many of my circumstances depend on fundamental reviews such as for instance ROF and PDE that use yards-per-play stats to reveal circumstances that have been profitable versus the line.

What gets lost in most the attention focused to how properly groups speed and move the baseball; nevertheless, is the truth that you will find other equally important aspects of group play which is often just as predictive in nature as a number of the more typically used sizes of group skill.

One area that often flies under the radar of handicappers requires statistics related to group penalties and as we shall examine here, certain forms of penalties can be a particularly powerful handicapping instrument in the best situations.

I’ve generally discovered penalties to be an interesting facet of the NFL sport and their effect is undeniable–who hasn’t believed the hurt of a mistimed penalty that suddenly breathes new life in to a drive that appeared to be over just moments before with a distribute victory all but sown up. Inopportune penalties may cost a team a casino game in the blink of a watch and turn a distribute winner into a loser quicker than T.O. may autograph a baseball (in the finish region of course).

I’ve really monitored penalty yardage stats considering that the 1994 year and penalty yardage differential (a per-game normal that takes penalties named on Opponents minus penalties named on the group in question) is the cornerstone for yet another effective trend that is 78-14 ATS before 13 seasons.

While it’s excellent to understand just how many meters of penalties a team averages per sport, or had in a prior sport, this sort of evaluation does not inform us anything about what particular KINDS of penalties a team is being assessed and the actual manner in which the ultimate penalty yardage overall outlined in the box report was came at.

May be the group involved having a large amount of unpleasant holding calls because of a lack of size on the range? Or, are they finding hit by having an abundance of move disturbance calls due to a second-string CB forced in to work as a result of an accident? By splitting up penalties in to more detailed classes and considering them based on the amount of calls, in place of meters, we could begin to own better answers for issues like those presented above.

Finally, nearly all penalties named in the modern NFL sport could be assigned to one of the subsequent 6 classes:

1) False Start Penalties (FSP)
2) Unpleasant Holding Penalties (OHP)
3) Play Book Performance Penalties (PBEP)
4) Defensive Range Penalties (DLP)
5) Defensive Extra Penalties (DSP)
6) Stupid Penalties (DMP)

The type that is the target of this informative article is the 3rd one outlined: Play Book Performance Penalties. That group includes any infraction linked to the breakdown of play calls. Samples of these include: Illegal formations, shifts, motion, snaps, participation, substitutions and procedures; Wait of sport (in certain cases); Illegal ahead moves; 12 guys on the subject; Ineligible devices and so on. For a complete breakdown on the other classes, please consult page 12 of the 2007 NFL Game Blankets Information.

The group normal for PBEP is generally about 0.7 calls per sport (on each team). Arizona was worst in the group in 2006 for PBEP’s against with a per-game normal of 1.5 while Pittsburgh and Denver were 1-2 in the group with a PBEP against normal of 0.2 and 0.4 per sport respectively.

As a stand-alone statistic, PBEP is a good yardstick for testing the caliber of a team’s coaching staff and also has an sign if people are being found in schemes where they’re relaxed and have the mandatory abilities to succeed. It’s no crash that groups such as the Steelers and Patriots have a low PBEPA normal year after year while others, such as the Cardinals, position near the bottom.

When it comes to handicapping versus the idea distribute, PBEPA becomes a good instrument when groups by having an very high PBEPA are examined.

Considering that the 2002 year, groups with a PBEPA average a lot more than double the group normal of 0.7 (> +1.5 to be exact) are a dismal 168-213 (44.1%) ATS from the number. In only yesteryear 5 times, putting bets based on this simple strategy alone would have netted you a tidy gain of $2,820 with a wager of $110 to gain right back $100 on each game.

There is actually a 2nd ‘Building Block’, or, Main issue that I like to utilize for this situation and that is: to just contain games where in actuality the opponent has a larger Defensive Extra Penalty Against Avg (DSPA).When this condition is added, the situation’s report is paid off to 55-110 (33.3%) ATS and gains before 5 decades jump to $4,950.

DSP penalties involve banners thrown primarily on Cornerbacks and Safeties, frequently for Defensive Go Interference and Illegal Contact. The complex connection between PBE and DS penalties is something that requires more study on my portion, but, suffice it to say that for whatever causes, they’re strongly connected and the extreme improvement that this situation gains when just groups with an increased DSPA normal are involved is proof of their correlation.

Rounding out this situation, are two Extra conditions. The initial describes that games by having an Over/Under less than 38 aren’t to be involved and the second removes groups coming off their Bye week (teams having difficulties with PBEPA’s do perform better versus the distribute when given an additional week of practice).

Here are the details.

(Notes: ASMR means Normal Spread Margin Rating. A confident ranking shows a trend that is more powerful than normal versus the range, negative–weaker than average. TDIS% is the proportion of groups in the group that have been associated with this situation previously or another. WT% is the proportion of groups which are .500 or better and SPR is the common distribute for groups in this situation. For more information, please consult Site 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Blankets Guide.)

Situational Tendency #22 Overview (Last Updated: Jan 15th, 2008)

Main Conditions (Building Blocks)

1) Play Book Performance Penalty Against (PBEPA) Normal of > +1.5 Per Game.
2) Opponent has a larger Defensive Extra Penalty Normal (DSPA).

Extra Conditions (Tighteners)
1) Group not coming off a Bye Week.
2) Exclude Over/Under (OU) of Condition Stats
ASMR: +0.2
Home%: 56.3
Dog%: 52.4
TDIS%: 87.5
WT%: 38.8
SPR: +0.12
Prime Clubs: ARI(13); CLE(10); PHI(9); SEA(9)

Condition History
Overall (Since ’01): 21-82 ATS
2007 Season: 2-5 ATS
2006 Season: 0-7 ATS
2005 Season: 5-20 ATS
2004 Season: 10-30 ATS

Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.
2007 WK15–MIA 22 BAL 16 (BAL -3.5) M
2007 WK13–NYJ 40 MIA 13 (NYJ +1) N
2007 WK11–PHI 17 MIA 7 (PHI -9.5) W.

Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics enthusiast and National Baseball nut, has been providing innovative NFL evaluation based from the Vegas Stage Spread because 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this 1 alongside specialized Group Rankings and Betting Programs, visit his site at [http://www.armchairanalysis.com]

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